• 2022.11.11:完成初稿




Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.

I’ve never been able to predict accurately. I don’t make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses and stay there.

The desire to get rich fast is pretty dangerous.

Everywhere there is a large commission, there is a high probability of a rip-off.

Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.

Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.

People are trying to be smart—all I am trying to do is not to be idiotic, but it’s harder than most people think.

I succeeded because I have a long attention span.

It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait

I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn’t like it; indeed, especially when one doesn’t like it.

We have a history when things are really horrible of wading in when no one else will

Successful investing requires this crazy combination of gumption and patience, and then being ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself, because in this world opportunities just don’t last very long.

View a stock as an ownership of the business and judge the staying quality of the business in terms of its competitive advantage.

My idea of shooting a fish in a barrel is draining the barrel first.


Move only when you have the advantage—you have to understand the odds and have the discipline to bet only when the odds are in your favor.

You should remember that good ideas are rare—when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.

Favorable surprises are easy to handle. It’s the unfavorable surprises that cause the trouble.


We just keep our heads down and handle the head windsand tailwinds as best we can, and take the result after a period of years.

A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price.

In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables—like the discount ware houses of Costco.

Averaged out, betting on the quality of a business is better than betting on the quality of management…but, very rarely, you find a manager who’s so good that you’re wise to follow him into what looks like a mediocre business.

When we bought See’s Candy, we didn’t know the power of a good brand. Over time, we just discovered that we could raise prices 10% a year and no one cared. Learning that changed Berkshire. It was really important.

Over the very long term, history shows that the chances of any business surviving in a manner agreeable to a company’s owners are slim at best.

The great lesson in microeconomics is to discriminate between when technology is going to help you and when it’s going to kill you.

The difference between a good business and a bad businessis that good businesses throw up one easy decision after another. The bad businesses throw up painful decisions time after time.

Banks will not rein themselves in voluntarily. They need adult supervision.

Where you have complexity, by nature you can have fraud and mistakes…This will always be true of financial companies,including ones run by governments. If you want accurate numbers from financial companies, you’re in the wrong world.

Smart people aren’t exempt from professional disasters from overconfidence.

If we’re going to prosper, we have to work. We have to have people subject to carrots and sticks. If you takeaway the stick the whole system won’t work. You can not vote yourself rich. It’s an idiotic idea.


It’s been my experience in life, if you just keep thinking and reading, you don’t have to work.

This is a nice college, but the really great educator is McDonald’s…. I think a lot of what goes on there is better than at Harvard.

Any year that passes in which you don’t destroy one of your best loved ideas is a wasted year.

Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.

Know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few.

A big percentage of Caltech grads are going into finance….They’ll make a lot of money by clobbering customers who aren’t as smart as them. It’s a mistake.I look at this in terms of losses from the diversion of our best talent going into some money-grubbing exercise.

I like people admitting they were complete stupid horses’asses. I know I’ll perform better if I rub my nose in my mistakes. This is a wonderful trick to learn.

There’s no way that you can live an adequate life without many mistakes. In fact, one trick in life is to get so you can handle mistakes. Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke

I think the attitude of Epictetus is the best. He thought that every missed chance in life was an opportunity to behave well, every missed chance in life was an opportunity to learn something, and that your duty was not to be submerged in selfpity, but to utilize the terrible blow in constructive fashion.That is a very good idea.

In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time—none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads—and how much I read.My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out.

If you have enough sense to become a mental adult yourself,you can run rings around people smarter than you. Just pick up key ideas from all the disciplines,not just a few, and you’re immensely wiser than they are.

I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up, and boy, does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you

Extreme specialization is the way to succeed. Most people are way better off specializing than trying to understand the world.

Look at this generation, with all of its electronic devices and multitasking. I will confidently predict less success than Warren, who just focused on reading. If you want wisdom, you’ll get it sitting on your ass. That’s the way it comes

We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.

It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline

I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.

I think people who multitask pay a huge price.

Most people are trained in one model—economics, for example—and try to solve all problems in one way. You know the saying, “To the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail.” This is a dumb way of handling problems.

Another thing I think should be avoided is extremely intense ideology because it cabbages up one’s mind.

The best way to get a good spouse is to deserve a good spouse.

Being rational is a moral imperative. You should never be stupider than you need to be.

The best armor of old age is a well-spent life preceding it.

In marriage, you shouldn’t look for someone with good looks and character. You look for someone with low expectations.

Three rules for a career: 1. Don’t sell anything you wouldn’t buy yourself; 2. Don’t work for anyone you don’t respect and admire; 3. Work only with people you enjoy.

The highest form that civilization can reach is a seamless web of deserved trust—not much procedure, just totally reliable people correctly trusting one another……In your own life what you want is a seamless web of deserved trust. And if your proposed marriage contract has forty-seven pages, I suggest you not enter.

Remember Louis Vincenti’s rule: “Tell the truth, and you won’t have to remember your lies.”

Over the long term, the eclipse rate of great civilizations being overtaken is 100%. So you know how it’s going to end.

Life is always going to hurt some people in some ways and help others. There should be more willingness to take the blows of life as they fall. That’s what manhood is, taking life as it falls. Not whining all the time and trying to fix it by whining.